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	<title>Free Ballin' &#187; espn insider</title>
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		<title>The Future, Last Night in Miami &#8211; Part 1</title>
		<link>http://freeballinblog.com/road-writing/the-future-last-night-in-miami-part-1/</link>
		<comments>http://freeballinblog.com/road-writing/the-future-last-night-in-miami-part-1/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:25:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mmandlin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[BASKETBALL COMMENTARY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ROAD WRITING]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[andrei kirilenko]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[basketball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bill simmons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dwight Howard]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[espn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[espn insider]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[foul trouble]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[great game]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[greg oden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[heat]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[injuries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[john hollinger]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nba]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[per]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trailblazers]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://freeballinblog.com/?p=912</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It doesn&#8217;t have to be a great game to get my attention.  Last night&#8217;s Trailblazers/Heat matchup was competitive, but nothing special.  Watching Greg Oden and Michael Beasley go at each other, on the other hand, was sensational. Amid a bevy if impressive sequences, the most significant play of the game to me (in a big [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It doesn&#8217;t have to be a great game to get my attention.  Last night&#8217;s Trailblazers/Heat matchup was competitive, but nothing special.  Watching Greg Oden and Michael Beasley go at each other, on the other hand, was sensational.</p>
<p>Amid a bevy if impressive sequences, the most significant play of the game to me (in a big picture way) occurred in the second half when Beasley caught the ball in the post against Oden.  It drives me <em>nuts</em> when smaller guys are in this situation and then dribble out only to fake and jab for 5 seconds before taking a step back jumper.  You see this at least two or three times a game.  But Beasley, recognizing the mismatch, dribbled out to the wing to exploit his speed advantage (Oden followed half way) and then went right at the rim.</p>
<p>Oden slid his feet quickly enough to keep pace with Beasley, jumped in perfect sync with him to contest the shot, and kept his arms straight up to avoid fouling.  There was contact in the air, but it was incidental, chests and shoulders, and refs typically don&#8217;t call if you keep your arms up and as long as one guy doesn&#8217;t go flying.  Oden played it just perfectly.  But Beasley scored anyway.  He took the contact in the air, switched the ball to his right hand, and finished softly over Oden.</p>
<p><strong>GREG ODEN</strong></p>
<p>That Oden didn&#8217;t block the shot is irrelevant.  He&#8217;s been a shot-blocking machine this season, and that alone invalidates concerns that microfracture surgery would limit his explosiveness.  No, the only thing between Oden and true greatness is foul trouble (his other injuries don&#8217;t seem like chronic threats.)  If he can limit his fouls enough to stay on the court 35 minutes a game, he&#8217;ll be a superstar.  That a goodly number people wrote him off as a bust as soon as he had knee surgery was absurd.  But I also find fault in the plethora of apologist commentary that said we need to adjust our expectations of Oden&#8217;s ceiling, to appreciate him for what he is.  For example, consider John Hollinger&#8217;s (espn insider) profile on Oden from the pre-season:</p>
<p><em>So let&#8217;s be honest here about what Oden is and what he isn&#8217;t. What he is, certainly, is an effective, slightly awkward big man who can rebound and block shots. What he is not is a once-in-a-generation center. Oden is too awkward offensively and too foul-prone to be the kind of dominator some thought he might be coming out of Ohio State. </em></p>
<p><em>Wipe away those expectations and it was a solid rookie season.</em></p>
<p>I wouldn&#8217;t take umbrage with this if Hollinger had spoken in the past tense and told us what Oden <em>was </em>and <em>wasn&#8217;t </em>in his rookie year, that he <em>wasn&#8217;t</em> a once-in-a-generation force in his rookie year.  Of course he wasn&#8217;t.  Between injuries and going one-and-done in college, Oden has played <em>vastly </em>less basketball than any previous NBA great center in his rookie year.  Check out this list of <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/blk_career.html">all time shot-blockers</a>; it&#8217;s made up almost exclusively of guys who played three or four years in college.  And it isn&#8217;t just the all time greats and players from previous generations.  Check out the <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/blk_active.html">list of active shot-blockers</a>; only the high-school kids had less experience than Oden and only Dwight Howard caught on quicker than Oden has been.  He&#8217;s much better than the others were at 21.  Really, considering the circumstances, it&#8217;s way too early to give up on hoping that Oden can be a once-in-a-generation dominating center.  I&#8217;m not saying he will, but I think he&#8217;s got a good shot.</p>
<p>Regarding his supposed clumsiness, so far he&#8217;s less turnover-prone than a bunch of greats at his age, like Patrick Ewing.  How else do you judge clumsiness in basketball?  Lack of obvious grace?  Whatever; Dwight Howard is somewhat less than graceful on offense.  Oden&#8217;s already got a much better shooting touch.  And how does anyone know if Oden will remain foul-prone?  What evidence is there that it&#8217;s a question of innate ability?  Frankly, the most important data I see for Oden is his free-throw percentage.  He took 200 foul shots in college, lefty, while recovering from right-hand surgery.  And he sunk over 60% of them.  So far this season he&#8217;s over 75% with his right hand.  That he picked up shooting it lefty in so little time and shot it better than a number of highly skilled alltime great bigs&#8230;  This year&#8217;s present clip, albeit a fairly small sample size, isn&#8217;t likely a clip, given that lefty shooting in college.  It&#8217;s more likely to be a result of time, practice, repetitions.  It&#8217;s evidence of his ability to improve.</p>
<p>Anyway, regardless of what Bill Simmons and lesser lights believe, I think the Oden or Durant argument is far from over.  But for injury concerns for Oden, they&#8217;d be neck and neck.  Durant&#8217;s a scoring machine, but he&#8217;s not yet anywhere close to the defender Oden is.  And while Oden isn&#8217;t nearly as good an offensive player, but he&#8217;s far better on offense than Durant is on defense.  Then again yesterday Durant looked like top-form Andrei Kirilenko on defense for a few plays, so who knows.  That&#8217;s the point, who knows?</p>
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