I just can’t believe in anything that Denver does.  Year after year, regardless of the composition of their roster, they’re the same team; they’ll play well enough to convince themselves and some others that they can make noise in the playoffs.  But they can’t, and they don’t.  This is like their fifth or sixth date now, and they still haven’t even copped a feel.  Me, I need to know what’s what by the end of the second date, or I’m likely to blow up the roster and rebuild around my franchise player (that’s me).  I mean, you can work the trade market, or try to spend your way to the promised land (if you have the cap space), but if the foundation isn’t there, free agency is more likely to give you VD than a championship banner.

Moves like the (swiftly aging) Billups acquisition, picking J.R. Smith off the clearance rack, Linas Kleiza from the end of the first round of the draft, Nene from Sloan Ket… (Umm, can you  make cancer jokes once a guy is totally healthy and finally playing up to his contract?  Yes?  No?  I’ll go with no).  Whatever, these are nips and tucks, injections, the occasional facelift.  But basketball is a top-down business: what happens on the floor is a near-perfect distillation of the organization.  They’ve made some good moves, but too many bad moves, they’re riding a coach whose defensive mastermind/player’s coach reputation was refuted two teams ago.  And their franchise player, Carmelo Anthony, is a star who’s jab-stepped at greatness, but never taken the plunge—it’s been seven years now.

I tell you, if the Nuggets were to win the championship this year (impossible) and I were in Denver to watch the parade, I would probably still stand there in the crowd arms crossed saying, “I don’t believe in this team.  I just don’t see it happening.”  Maybe I’d only be thinking it, though, since I wouldn’t want to offend any pretty Nuggets fans in the mood for like.  But the scenario is only barely conceivable because of my wild imagination; it’s all but implausible.  The Nuggets are not contenders.  They are currently off to the best start at home they’ve ever had.  It’s chimerical, smoke and mirrors.  Talk to me when Kenyon Martin makes the veteran’s minimum.

I like trades like this, big pieces being shifted around by two teams, Detroit and Denver, that needed a change. Or maybe not. Denver desperately needed a change, and this trade is terrific for them in every way I can think of, except…well, Allen Iverson is really cool. He’s the lead guitarist who does crazyamazing solos, which are wonderful, but sometimes he gets in the way of the ensemble, when he doesn’t have the right mix around him. Billups, meanwhile, is a perfect fit in Denver, and their team will be considerably better for this deal.

Whether or not Detroit needed change, especially such a huge change, is debatable. It might work out very well for them, or it might not.

AI in Denver

AI was a so-so fit in Denver. Offensively, he was terrific in their transition game, but didn’t compliment his teammates’ abilities in half-court sets. Defensively, Denver was as good a fit for AI as one could ask. AI’s style of defense pretty much entails lunging for steals in the passing lane. He gets two or more steals a game and, given his superior transition abilities, each is almost a guaranteed 2 points. However, when he misses, he’s often out of position and the opposition gets a momentary 5 on 4 advantage.

Purists hate AI’s risky D and…actually, I don’t think I’ve ever heard/read a defense of AI’s defending. Well, maybe he’s a reckless gambler, and maybe he’s Ricky Henderson; I don’t know. His steals probably create about 4 points per game, for his team. Is there any evidence to suggest that his missed steal-attempts costs his team 4 or more points per game? I really have no idea. It’s a high-risk/high reward strategy akin to stolen bases in baseball. As I recall, basestealers need to be successful about 74% of the time to acheive a net gain (Henderson stole at an 80% clip.) What’s the % in basketball? Dunno. Stealing a base only increases one’s chances of scoring, while AI’s steals are almost automatic scores, but each run in baseball is much more valuable than 4 points is to a basketball team. I really don’t know, but I’m not ready to condemn AI’s defense until I have better data. And I don’t know if the data we’d need, to know, is even collected.

Whatever the case, Denver was better positioned than most teams to minimize AI’s gambling. Marcus Camby was there to contest shots that opened when AI was out of position, and when Nene and Kenyon Martin are healthy enough to be on the floor, they are both pretty good at getting in the lane to draw charges. Again, there isn’t enough data to know the value of AI’s gambling, but it seems likely that the talents of Denver’s big men helped minimize risk.

AI in Detroit

Like I said, now we’ll see how good Rodney Stuckey is. I have no opinion; I’ve never seen the guy play. I’ve just heard glowing reports from just about every pundit. Stuckey needs to run the point, because (though Denver seemed to forget it) AI is a shooting guard.

Yes, AI is quite capable of bringing the ball up the court, and then he weaves and bobs, looking to penetrate, while his teammates stand around doing nothing. When AI catches the ball on the move, coming off screens and such, he gets the separation from the defender he needs to immediately attack the rim (or get a clean look for a jumper) which also create openings for his teammates.

If Stuckey can’t really run the point, Detroit is going to take a big hit in this trade, because they’ll get AI playing out of position. If Stuckey is 100% legit as a PG then…I don’t know. Even if the experiment works, I don’t know if it’s a net gain over what they already had. AI’s a weird fit for Detroit. I’ll have to think about it. It’s not an intuitive panacea for Detroit, but Dumars is wicked-smart, and I’m a big AI fan, so I’ll reserve judgment.

Billups in Denver

Billups fits perfectly beside Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith. Not only is he a more efficient point guard than AI, but he’s a much better distance shooter, which will give Anthony more protection from double-teams. Also, with Camby gone (traded for nothing,) and Kenyon Martin and Nene both on injuries that are yet to be determined, it’s probably better to have a defender who excels at staying in front of his man.