*************

SOLUTION TO NBA OFFICIATING: I’m serious, this is a game-changer, literally

The solution to the godawful NBA officiating starts with the creation of a complete and completely objective NBA officiating website—details below .  I floated the idea to…a senior-level executive of an NBA team, and he said “great!” but said they couldn’t fund it because it needs to be independent to have validity.  I don’t have the money, time, or the expertise to make this happen, but perhaps some of your readers do—it’s definitely a group project.

The officiating website I envision would be a resource for data without subjective content.  It would therefore *only* include:

Referee calls: video of every call—and every type of call—made by refs of every NBA game, in real speed, and slow motion, from every angle available from broadcasts. (Without audio.)
Statistics: raw data, counting stats—no percentages, ratios, graphs, etc.  Even choosing which metrics to post is subjective.  The site would only provide raw data to give users the means to conduct their own studies.

There would be no commentary, no chat boards, no links, etc.  There would also be no non-calls content.  It won’t be necessary.

If the raw data is available and made easily accessible to site users, fans, students, academic institutions, bloggers, et. al. they will provide the secondary content—the commentary and analysis.  If the site gives them something to work with, they’ll embed the video on their blogs and cite the statistics, and provide the commentary that will spur debate.

Furthermore, non-calls are as important an issue as whistled action, but eventually (and swiftly, I believe) non-call sites will pop up.  Tons will be partisan, but I think you’ll see objective-as-possible Sloan-academic-type sites emerge.  Objective-as-possible non-calls means trying to show all plays of all NBA games that 1) violate rules from the official NBA rulebook (which I believe is also available in video on nba.com) and 2) non-calls can be compared with whistled action from ‘my’ objective officiating site.  The non-calls issue is much more complicated and much more subjective—a longterm project, but the inherent subjectivity is why it must be left to the public, and not appear on the objective officiating site I envision.

I think this site is necessary regardless of the way the NBA league offices handle officiating review, and it’s understandable that the NBA league offices could never produce a site like this, for various reasons, but their infuriating behind-closed-doors policies of dealing with officiating just begs for public response—a cogent, progressive response.  NBA officiating simply *must* be subjected to independent analysis.  And I truly believe the site I propose is the beginning of the solution.  As Justice Brandeis noted: sunlight is the best disinfectant.

So consider just a few aspects of the site’s utility.  Besides all the conspiracy theories and beliefs that refs intentionally favor or seek to harm certain teams, unconscious bias is simply an inherent aspect of the human condition.  However well intentioned these guys are, refs aren’t robots.  But being forced to discover and confront those biases, I like to think refs will likely feel impelled to improve.  And either way, they’ll definitely feel the heat when the whole world can point to objective measurements of their biases.  And who knows, maybe the data will vindicate refs of certain accusations.  And of course, the data won’t just be used to confirm or invalidate popular beliefs about officiating; surely it will elucidate other matters.  For example, I suspect the data will assist in extricating the ‘noise’ from analytical studies of the NBA game.  But yeah, it will also help address accusations of malintent, “Everyone knows that this or that Ref X totally screws this or that team”—fighting, urge, to, use, Spurs, as, completely, randomly, chosen, example.  And my hope beyond hope is that someday, studies of the data and non-calls data will show *definitively* which refs just suck.  Early retirement!

And there are as many other possibilities as there are NBA fans who have the curiosity and creativity to ask questions and the dedication to pursue answers.

Best,

Michael

**********
That was long enough, but if you want an idea or two of how to get the ball rolling…

Obviously the builders of the site would need to watch every single NBA game each season as the season progresses, record them all, and post and categorize every, every charge, every moving screen, every travel, every palm, even every out-of-bounds.  And yes, they’d even have to watch Pistons games.

Also, it’s quite plausible to start with the ’09-’10 season, though it might take a bit of organizing and persuasion…  I’d contact every team in the league by email and phone, requesting one copy of DVDs of all of that team’s games from the ’09-’10 season.  Consider this idea:

First a polite email is written that 500 fans (or 5,000 fans) electronically sign.  Then a PR rep for each team is contacted at the same time (approximately, no watch synchronizing necessary I think) by phone just to let them know the email is coming, so it doesn’t get lost in the shuffle.  It’s easy to get teams’ PR reps on the phone—I did it with almost every team last season for a project—and their email contact info is available, too.

Then the email is sent with every team carbon copied—and it can be made known, tactfully, that their response will be public: “our 5,000 petitioners eagerly await your reply!”  I don’t even know how much cajoling would be necessary.  I suspect fan-interactive teams like the Mavericks would be happy to send the DVDs (especially considering the umbrage they’ve taken with the quality of officiating), and maybe other metric-centric teams will too.  But if a few teams send the DVDs (maybe even just one team) others might feel compelled to comply with the request.

That may not work, but once the site is established, if it gets serious traffic…well, traffic is everything.  If the site gets big traffic and publicity of any sort, grassroots or otherwise, I imagine it could build the clout to get teams to send DVDs of all games going back 20 years.  How cool would it be to use officiating data to analyze (umm, for someone else to analyze) how the game has changed through the years–that is, as the rules, trends, and basketball culture have changed?

Hey, if you’ve gone all the way through this email, thanks, that’s awesome.  I truly believe that the site I envision could be the beginning of a better League.  If you agree with me, well Mr. Huge Audience Blogger…

Best, again,

Michael

After all, there’s no financial risk, and if at some point they change their minds and decide that Iverson is messing up their…well, that’s it, what do they have to mess up, really?  Philly’s season is almost screwed.  Teams that start the season 4–15 do not make the playoffs unless they only sucked because their big time superstar was out injured and comes back 100%.  Well, the 76ers don’t have any superstar to come back from injury, so they’ve hired a former superstar and hope he still has it.

I’m talking myself into this.

Iverson’s a tough fit on almost any team, but the Princeton offense doesn’t really require a point guard, just someone to bring the ball up the floor.  After that, it’s all about passing and off-the-ball movement.  Well, AI’s game has been all about ball monopoly for several years, but once upon a time, Larry Brown had Iverson moving around screens as well as Reggie Miller ever did.  And although AI shoots a ton, I never thought it was selfish; it’s just how he knows to play.  Furthermore, though he’s not a drive and kick guy, and it’s kind of hard for me to remember him ever catching a pass and then immediately passing to someone else, he’s always been a nifty interior passer on the way to the hoop.  And now instead of having George Lynch and Dikembe Mutombo to pass to, he can dish off to Elton Brand near the basket and a bunch of high-fliers who can get at the rim pretty quickly.  (Yes, I know he had Carmelo, J.R. Smith, and some other jumpers in Denver, but it was more of an every man for himself, offense.)

The one other angle I’m considering is Bill Simmons’ whole Elton Brand is a “second banana” thing.  I’ve never really given much thought about the wolf pack mentality on teams the way Simmons does, but maybe he’s right; maybe it’s really important for a team to have an alpha dog.  Lou Williams being out for two months definitely decreased the talent level in Philly, but it’s not like he was top dog, team leader; he’s a young guy figuring out his way like the rest of their roster.  Elton Brand can’t play that role if he can’t bring it on the floor.  And either way I get the impression that neither he, nor Andre Iguodala have the personality for it anyway.  Maybe that’s what the 76ers have missed most from Andre Miller, a guy whose moxie was as important (or more so) than his talents.  I don’t know if I’d ever call AI a leader, but he sure as hell has moxie, and plays with a fervor that borders on desperation: like he needs the ball to go in.  Maybe he flexes superior, throws his body at the defenders, and the rest of the team falls into place behind him

OK, yeah, I’ve just about talked myself into it, that the AI signing is the right way to go.  I needed a third favorite-team-to-watch this year, anyway.  Now, when the Rockets aren’t on, I can flip back and forth between Oklahoma City and Philly games.  Starting Monday.

Amid a bevy if impressive sequences, the most significant play of the game to me (in a big picture way) occurred in the second half when Beasley caught the ball in the post against Oden.  It drives me nuts when smaller guys are in this situation and then dribble out only to fake and jab for 5 seconds before taking a step back jumper.  You see this at least two or three times a game.  But Beasley, recognizing the mismatch, dribbled out to the wing to exploit his speed advantage (Oden followed half way) and then went right at the rim.

Oden slid his feet quickly enough to keep pace with Beasley, jumped in perfect sync with him to contest the shot, and kept his arms straight up to avoid fouling.  There was contact in the air, but it was incidental, chests and shoulders, and refs typically don’t call if you keep your arms up and as long as one guy doesn’t go flying.  Oden played it just perfectly.  But Beasley scored anyway.  He took the contact in the air, switched the ball to his right hand, and finished softly over Oden.

GREG ODEN

That Oden didn’t block the shot is irrelevant.  He’s been a shot-blocking machine this season, and that alone invalidates concerns that microfracture surgery would limit his explosiveness.  No, the only thing between Oden and true greatness is foul trouble (his other injuries don’t seem like chronic threats.)  If he can limit his fouls enough to stay on the court 35 minutes a game, he’ll be a superstar.  That a goodly number people wrote him off as a bust as soon as he had knee surgery was absurd.  But I also find fault in the plethora of apologist commentary that said we need to adjust our expectations of Oden’s ceiling, to appreciate him for what he is.  For example, consider John Hollinger’s (espn insider) profile on Oden from the pre-season:

So let’s be honest here about what Oden is and what he isn’t. What he is, certainly, is an effective, slightly awkward big man who can rebound and block shots. What he is not is a once-in-a-generation center. Oden is too awkward offensively and too foul-prone to be the kind of dominator some thought he might be coming out of Ohio State.

Wipe away those expectations and it was a solid rookie season.

I wouldn’t take umbrage with this if Hollinger had spoken in the past tense and told us what Oden was and wasn’t in his rookie year, that he wasn’t a once-in-a-generation force in his rookie year.  Of course he wasn’t.  Between injuries and going one-and-done in college, Oden has played vastly less basketball than any previous NBA great center in his rookie year.  Check out this list of all time shot-blockers; it’s made up almost exclusively of guys who played three or four years in college.  And it isn’t just the all time greats and players from previous generations.  Check out the list of active shot-blockers; only the high-school kids had less experience than Oden and only Dwight Howard caught on quicker than Oden has been.  He’s much better than the others were at 21.  Really, considering the circumstances, it’s way too early to give up on hoping that Oden can be a once-in-a-generation dominating center.  I’m not saying he will, but I think he’s got a good shot.

Regarding his supposed clumsiness, so far he’s less turnover-prone than a bunch of greats at his age, like Patrick Ewing.  How else do you judge clumsiness in basketball?  Lack of obvious grace?  Whatever; Dwight Howard is somewhat less than graceful on offense.  Oden’s already got a much better shooting touch.  And how does anyone know if Oden will remain foul-prone?  What evidence is there that it’s a question of innate ability?  Frankly, the most important data I see for Oden is his free-throw percentage.  He took 200 foul shots in college, lefty, while recovering from right-hand surgery.  And he sunk over 60% of them.  So far this season he’s over 75% with his right hand.  That he picked up shooting it lefty in so little time and shot it better than a number of highly skilled alltime great bigs…  This year’s present clip, albeit a fairly small sample size, isn’t likely a clip, given that lefty shooting in college.  It’s more likely to be a result of time, practice, repetitions.  It’s evidence of his ability to improve.

Anyway, regardless of what Bill Simmons and lesser lights believe, I think the Oden or Durant argument is far from over.  But for injury concerns for Oden, they’d be neck and neck.  Durant’s a scoring machine, but he’s not yet anywhere close to the defender Oden is.  And while Oden isn’t nearly as good an offensive player, but he’s far better on offense than Durant is on defense.  Then again yesterday Durant looked like top-form Andrei Kirilenko on defense for a few plays, so who knows.  That’s the point, who knows?

Toronto Raptors:

No fans are in worse shape than Raptor fans.  You know Chris Bosh is going to leave.  You know it, don’t you?  Toronto’s management is in an awful position (of their own making,) trying to figure out a way to entice Bosh to stay.  He says he loves it in Toronto, but I can almost hear a sarcastic grin when he says it.  Maybe it’s just history.  I don’t know if it’s just the Raptors’ awful management—really, how many good decisions have they ever made?  Ever?  I think it’s pretty clear that Bryan Colangelo’s father was doing all the heavy lifting in Phoenix—but they’ve never been able to attract big talent.  And if player’s find Toronto aversive, in itself, then the only way to convince a guy of Bosh’s caliber to stay is to put together a serious contender.  I think it’s pretty hard to leave a contender.

So what does Toronto do?  Forget how after years of Bosh playing out of position at center, or playing next to a crap center, the Raptors used a first overall pick to draft Andrea Bargnani, a 7-footer who doesn’t rebound or defend.  What’s unforgivable is paying him huge money when after three years he has only started to show indications that he might develop into a pretty decent scorer (if he can shoot over 45% from three, because the guy can’t do it in the post) who doesn’t rebound or defend.  And this when there was no market competition for Bargnani; and the guy had an effing year to go before being a restricted free agent.  Amazing.  Go ahead and convince Bosh to stay by offering to squander his prime years—and Jose Calderon’s—with expensive mediocrities, like Hedo Turkoglu.  It’s actually codified in the Collective Bargaining Agreement that at least one NBA team must sign one player (or more) to a deal so absurd, that’s untradeable from the day it’s signed.  Really, there is no single team in the NBA that has less of a clue right now than Toronto.  Memphis could sign Allen Iverson to a max contract today and hire Chris Wallace to be their GM (oh, wait…) and their future would look vastly better than the Raptors’.  Bill Simmons says the most fanatical fans he hears from are Raptors fans.  If half of them stick it out through post Bosh years with this team, they’ll prove him right.

And the Raptors is a stupid name.  I feel like I need to remind people of this, frequently.

ATLANTA HAWKS:

You give a team enough lottery picks and it’s difficult to not be a good team.  If you draft  fairly well, your team will be very good, or better.  Or you could be the Hawks.  Ugh.  What a wrecked franchise.  I’ve written about it ad nauseam so I won’t go into it too much, here.  It’s just that whenever I watch the Hawks, I can’t help but to see how the players got to be Hawks.

Marvin Williams: “Hey, that’s Not Chris Paul/Deron Williams!  He’s sure making progress!”

Al Horford: ‘Hey there’s the outstanding replacement for the previous year’s botched and subsequently exiled #5 overall pick, “Seldom Seen” Sheldon Williams!’

Acie Law: “Hey there’s…who’s that slow squat lefty getting garbage minutes?”

Josh Childress: “Hey, where the hell is Josh Childress?”

And to be fair, Josh Smith: ‘Wow, they got him with the 17th overall pick?  What a steal!  I guess it’s true what Uncle Joe says: “Even a blind pig stumbles upon a truffle from time to time.”‘

And of course their best player for the last several years, Joe Johnson, was acquired in a sign-and-trade where they gave up three first round draft picks.  Just for the right to give Johnson–who was pining to leave the Suns–a max contract.  I don’t quite get how some teams are able to convince other teams to give them first round picks in a sign and trade.  How does that conversation go?

Phoenix: We offer Joe Johnson $X and not a penny more.

Hawks: Well, we can offer him $X, too.  But how about we give him X + 30% and we give you three first-round draft picks, too?

I’ve never understood that.  This was such a stupid move (regardless of how good Johnson became) that it caused a nasty litigious schism between co-owners of the franchise.  And I think the fight is as yet unsettled(?).

I don’t know what’s going to happen with the Hawks.  It’s hard to approach objectivity when I find them so depressing.  I never used to care all that much–they were just a waste of a potentially excellent franchise, but then so are the Grizzlies and Clippers–but then I had such a terrific time in Atlanta last year, during the Free Ballin’ stroll, and met so many awesome people, they deserve a real franchise.  Well, at least the Hawks’ PR people are pretty dope.  If only I could have been dope too…

Before I even got to the city, the Hawks communications department was amiable and generous, telling me about good bars to go to for Hawks games (Stats or Dantanna’s), introducing me to a website boasting a community of (all 500) passionate Hawks fans (hawksquawk), and hooking me up with outstanding tickets to the Hawks/Toronto game.  It was a nice reception after a rough patch in my journey.

I also got to play basketball for the first time in ages, and got my ass kicked twice: first at Georgia Tech and then at Run N’ Shoot—which was actually renamed Metro Fitness, because it’s in an area of the city that’s…well, they thought it would be best to change the name.  And yeah, my game wasn’t quite polished after the long layoff, but I avoided being posterized by the 16 year-olds at Run N’ Shoot who were catching and slamming alley-oops one-handed.  So that’s an accomplishment.

And Bill Simmons was right about the women of Atlanta.  In fact, they were so lovely and charming and other things that I almost flubbed the professional aspects of the trip.

So on January 19th the whole city was in a celebratory mood because it was MLK’s birthday and the following day was the Presidential Inauguration.  And I was in a celebratory mood, because I was going hiking with the pretty girl who had taken me to Run ‘N Shoot the previous evening—sometimes it’s great not having a car and needing a ride—and I was taking her to watch the Hawks play the Raptors that night.  And then, well, I felt fairly confident that…much good would transpire.

Though I was hoping to get up to the Smoky Mountains while I was in Georgie, we went hiking down south of Atlanta instead, because it was much closer to the city and that way we would have plenty of time to get back for the 7PM game that night.

But it wasn’t a 7PM game.

That afternoon, the Hawks were hosting a special MLK Day celebration in Phillips Arena, followed by the 2:00 PM game against the Raptors.  I could be wrong, but figuring our schedule, I think the pretty girl started feeling nauseous and dyspeptic somewhere deep in the woods of southern Georgia, around the same time Joe Johnson hit the game winning jump shot, with 12.5 seconds left on the clock.  I can’t remember whether she was still feeling ill when we got back to the city, just that at some point we put on the radio for traffic reports, and the game results were announced.  And in that instant, I lost both my breath, my plans, and my mojo.

[Oh, what was also exciting about that game, they mentioned that it was the first time that more than a hundred people had showed up to a Hawks game since Dominique Wilkins retired.  They actually reported over 17,000 attended, but I don't think there are even that many people in Georgia.  But who knows, I could be wrong.]

That was my only hugely unprofessional f#ck up of the season, but I felt pretty lousy about it.  Fortunately Atlanta folk are swell and helped me out.  Missing the game threw off my schedule entirely; I had planned to leave Atlanta for NC the next day, but I needed to catch a Hawks game before leaving town.  So my couchsurfing host said no problem, I could stay as long as I wanted.  And the same night I missed the game, a new friend I’d met a few days before said he would try to hook me up with tickets that floated around his office (there were, ahem, a few seats that had not yet been sold for the upcoming Atlanta/Milwaukee game.)  And then the day of the game, a friend of my host hooked us up with amazing tickets (there were, ahem, a few amazing seats that had not yet been sold for that night’s Atlanta/Milwaukee game.)

Granted, instead of beating Toronto in the last minute of the game, the Hawks were up 30 on Milwaukee early in the fourth quarter, but I still had a grand time.  So I left Atlanta with a smile on my face.  Actually though, the Inauguration had something to do with that, and so did spending my last night in town Hotlanta style, going for “some” drinks and dancing.  That evening was terrific and would have been perfect if I hadn’t (again) fouled things up by going for one pretty girl (a different pretty girl) 10 seconds after she told me that her almost pretty best friend wanted me to take her home.  (And there are some lines decent girls don’t cross, even the pretty ones.)  I promise you that I’m not normally that stupid (well, not that stupid), but I don’t normally drink that much either.

So yeah, yeah, the Hawks will make the playoffs and somehow continue to disappoint all 350 of their fans.  I’ll write some other time, soon, about Marvin Williams, and how he’s a model of a struggling tweener who takes his entire rookie contract to find his way.  And then he eventually sorta kinda finds it, and is paid huge money to maybe hopefully but probably not someday be a star.  And how we have to hear from announcers all the time that we need to appreciate him for whom he is and not blame him for not being Chris Paul or Deron Williams.  I’ll get into the details on that at some point, and about how his game and improvements should be a model and measuring stick for similar tweeners like Tyrus Thomas.  And maybe how teammate tweeners Thomas and Luol Deng demonstrate with crystalline perfection the difference between what happens when a tweener works his ass off to find his game and when a tweener doesn’t work his ass off.  And I might even mention how my mouth fell open when I was reading a chat with a guy (who now works for ESPN) who used to coach one of those Chicago tweeners, and about how when he was asked what aspect of that tweener’s game they’d talked about that tweener working on when they last met, the former coach said: consistency and energy.  Ugh.  Yeah, I’ll write about that some other time.

Toronto gets Evans: I find this amusing because it’s a deal to help facilitate Andrea Bargnani’s development.  I haven’t seen much of Bargnani and don’t feel like I can opine on his upside, but it does actually seem like he might become a real scorer.  However, he also must be the worst inch-for-inch rebounder in the game.  Evans, on the other hand, is as good a rebounder as anyone in the NBA.  And he can’t do anything else.  I really love mix-n-match trades.

Philly gets Kapono: This deal is entirely about Elton Brand.  I was totally in favor of the Brand signing, and though it doesn’t look good, so far, I think it could still work out.

I didn’t see a lot of the 76ers with Brand, but then, nobody else did either.  The guy played 29 games before his injury, but from all accounts he seemed like an awful fit for the team.  Bill Simmons even named him the least valuable player in the NBA (his contract being a major factor.)  Eh, I think it’s just way too early to call the move a failure.

As for the fit, it’s on the team to create a roster around the qualities of their franchise player, and to get a coach whose system compliments him.  And yet, I’m not suggesting that the roster is unsuited to compliment Brand’s talents.  29 games and a coach who has almost been fired almost every year of his coaching career?  You have to give it a chance to work.  And, well, they will, because Brand is signed for a long, long time.

One thing I’m curious about was hearing that a major conflict was that the 76ers had a lot of runners and jumpers (without jumpers) and Brand was strictly a half-court guy.  This surprised me because Brand used to be plenty capable of running and jumping.  Hell, you have to be pretty damn athletic to block so many shots at his height.  The only other guys (I can think of) his height who block so many shots are super-freaky athletes Josh Smith and Andrei Kirilenko.  But hey, Simmons has a good eye, and he’s had Clippers season tickets for a while, so maybe he’s right; maybe Brand can’t run like he used to.  Or maybe Bill’s just used to seeing him coached by Mike Dunleavy.

Anyway, I still think Brand could work out well.  New coach Eddie Jordan should help, nicely.  In DC, Jordan had a few very talented scorers who weren’t all that into passing or playing defense, and not much else.  With those pieces he eked out a winning record; now he has some serious talent, and I think he’s a solid choice to figure out how to put the pieces together.

Oh, Kapono.  He got traded, right?  He’s there to shoot, what else?  He can shoot the lights out, pass, and nothing else.  But creating space for Brand and pulling up for transition three pointers is really all he has to do to contribute.

“Look at poor Phoenix, which won 46 games in 2008-09 and barely missed the playoffs. If the Suns had the same odds as everyone else to land Blake Griffin in June, and they did, wouldn’t this be good for the league? They’d be an instant contender again!”

Here, Simmons mistakes the Suns for a team worthy of sympathy.  I’ve posted about this before, but below is a concise summary of why the Suns deserve no sympathy whatsoever for their slide from contention.

Immediately after signing Steve Nash, in 2004, new owner Robert Sarver became the stingiest owner in the league.  Consider the 2004 to 2007 stretch.

2004: Drafted Luol Deng 7th overall, but didn’t want to pay his rookie-scale $2.2 million contract, so they traded him to the Bulls for their second round pick (Jackson Vroman) a future first round-pick, and…cash.

2005: Drafted Nate Robinson ($900K) 21st overall and traded him in the package for Kurt Thomas, to replace the injured Amare Stoudemire. (We’ll come back to this.)

2006: Drafted Rajon Rondo ($1.1M) 21st overall, but used him to dump Brian Grant’s salary, trading them for Cleveland’s 2007 first-round pick (via Boston) and…cash.

Six picks after Rondo, they drafted Sergio Rodríguez ($900 thousand) and traded him to the Trailblazers for…cash.

2007: Used the first round-pick, acquired in Rondo deal, to draft Rudy Fernandez ($1M), but used him to dump James Jones’ $2.9 million salary, trading them to the Trailblazers for…cash.

A few weeks later, the Suns dumped Kurt Thomas’ salary by trading him and TWO FIRST-ROUND PICKS to the Sonics, for a FUTURE CONDITIONAL SECOND-ROUND PICK.

2008: Fittingly, Thomas helped the Spurs whup the Suns in the First Round, in 5 games.

To summarize, poor Phoenix had an owner worth $550 million who wouldn’t put a few more bucks into a contending team to put them over the top. By the time Steve Kerr hypnotized Sarver into spending some dough (trading for Shaq) the Suns’ window had already closed.

Look, at least Clippers fans know their team is going to disappoint them, year after year.  The 7-seconds-or-less Suns, on the other hand, flirting with greatness, were ultimately just a big tease.