Free Ballin’

I’m not quite sure what to make of the Mavericks.  Their top five players have a lot of talent, but only Dirk is presently in top form.  He’s a machine and doesn’t seem to have aged a bit since their Finals run in ’06.  But Kidd, Marion, Terry, and Howard have all had better days.  That’s it’s least evident in Kidd speaks to his basketball genius.

The dude is 36 but he still has the motor to go at top speed for 36 minutes a game and competently defend shooting guards.  And though he doesn’t score much, he’s shooting efficiently.  And when he’s on the floor, the ball movement is terrific.  Whatever the Mavs’ options in a given possession, Kidd will make the most of it.  Unfortunately, the rest of the posse doesn’t do a ton with the opportunities.

Jason Terry can’t shoot straight this year.  I don’t know what’s up with that.  Actually, his three-point shooting has been going downhill the last few years—maybe he lost a half step and doesn’t get quite the same space that he used to get?—but whatever the case, he hasn’t been able to hit the side of a barn this year.  And since like 80% of his value is in his shooting, that’s something of an issue.

Marion is still a good player, but he’s not nearly the big rebounding versatile defending combo forward anymore.  Sure, he’s still got some bounce, but at this point here’s just…good.  And Jason Terry can’t shoot straight this year.  His three-point shooting has been going downhill the last few years.  Whether he’s lost a half step and can’t get the same space to shoot that he used to, I don’t know.  But whatever the case,  he can’t hit the side of a barn this year, and since like 90% of his value is in his shooting, that’s something of an issue.  And then there’s Josh Howard.  Yeah, sure, he’s coming off surgery, will get better, yadda yadda, but even healthy he too is merely a good player.  I note this because in the Mavs’ run to the Finals in ’06 he was terrific and I thought he looked good to stay at that level.  But it didn’t happen.  He shot very well from outside for two years, but he can’t shoot straight anymore either, regardless of his health.

Really, Jose Juan Barea is the only Mavs player other than Dirk who’s having a great year.  He has real value as long as he continues to shoot the lights out and do a decent job of staying in front of point guards.  But it’s not like he’s an up and coming game changer.

I guess I see the Mavericks as contenders by default, merely because neither Denver nor Phoenix are for real.  The Mavs have a decent shot at the Western Conference Finals, I suppose, but that’s their upside.  And the weird thing is, I think of the Mavs as being such a smart franchise, but in a salary cap NBA, flexibility is the truest expression of management smarts (after wins).  But they signed Jason Terry to a butt-ugly that clogs up their cap space for the next few years.  And yeah, Dirk’s a machine, but how long can he do that for another two, three, four years?  Maybe.  Probably not.